Robinhood reported $4.473 billion of revenue for fiscal 2025, up from $1.865 billion in fiscal 2023.1 That growth is the financial backdrop to its newest move. On September 30, 2026, Cboe said at Robinhood's third annual HOOD Summit in Houston that it plans to launch binary contracts tied to company-specific key performance indicators (KPIs). The launch is expected in October 2026 and is subject to regulatory approval. Robinhood will be the first retail broker to offer them.2
This piece covers three things. First, what the verified numbers say about the company opening this door. Second, what is known about the contracts. Third, where venture money is flowing alongside them. Throughout, we mark which claims come from filings and which come from sources with a weaker record.
The balance sheet behind the push
These figures come from SEC filings and have been checked against that source. Robinhood's revenue was $1.865 billion in fiscal 2023, $2.951 billion in fiscal 2024 and $4.473 billion in fiscal 2025.1 It has more than doubled in two years.
Profit moved even more sharply. Net income was a loss of $541 million in fiscal 2023, then a profit of $1.411 billion in fiscal 2024 and $1.883 billion in fiscal 2025.1 Earnings per share went from a loss of $0.61 to $1.56 and then $2.05 over the same three years.1 By our own arithmetic, fiscal 2025 net income was about 42 cents for every dollar of revenue.
Cash generation was less smooth. Operating cash flow was $1.181 billion in fiscal 2023, then negative $157 million in fiscal 2024, then $1.638 billion in fiscal 2025.1 The fiscal 2024 dip is a reminder that a company can report a large profit in a year when operations did not bring cash in. The dossier does not explain the cause, so we do not speculate.
The cash balance tells a similar story. At the end of the second quarter of 2023 Robinhood held $5.829 billion in cash. That fell to $4.162 billion by the second quarter of 2025, then recovered to $5.012 billion in the first quarter of 2026 and $5.362 billion in the second quarter of 2026.1 Year-end figures were $4.835 billion (fiscal 2023), $4.332 billion (fiscal 2024) and $4.261 billion (fiscal 2025).1 Stockholders' equity, the accounting value belonging to shareholders after debts, rose from $6.696 billion to $7.972 billion between fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2024.1
Spending on research and development has barely moved while revenue has surged. It was $349 million, $323 million and $355 million across fiscal 2023, 2024 and 2025.1 Revenue grew sharply while this line stayed roughly flat. That helps explain the swing to profit, and our reading is that it gives the company room to launch new products.
A note on the seams. Two records give slightly different figures for Robinhood's cash on September 30, 2025: $4.331 billion and a rounded $4.3 billion, a gap of about $31 million. We use the SEC-sourced $4.331 billion. The difference looks like rounding rather than a real dispute, but the dossier does not say so explicitly.
Robinhood is regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is listed on the NASDAQ Global Select Market. It has also been financed through a note offering involving initial purchasers.1 The dossier does not say whether you already own Robinhood through an index fund, so we do not guess.
What the new contracts are, and what is not yet known
Cboe says the products are tied to 23 companies and will roll out in October, subject to regulatory approval.2 Cboe will charge no fees on the KPI binary options through the end of 2026, subject to regulatory review, and Robinhood will also offer them with no fees through year-end.2 In plain terms, these are yes-or-no bets on whether a company hits a particular business measure.
Steve Quirk framed it as a tool for ordinary investors: "Earnings contracts give retail investors another tool to inform their strategies and offer an even more precise way to trade on anticipated company KPIs."2
The zero-fee period matters for the money. Free trading tends to win customers first and earn revenue later. The dossier contains no revenue guidance for these products, so that is only a framing. It is not a forecast. Today is October 24, and the dossier does not confirm whether the contracts have actually launched or been approved.
The same day brought a wider product list. Robinhood's HOOD Summit announcements the day before included Robinhood Agent, perpetuals, 24/7 trading, earnings predictions and 10X crypto leverage.3 Robinhood is widening what a retail account can do, and several of the new items carry more risk than a plain share purchase.
On reliability. The press release was distributed through NewsEOD, a source whose claims held up 56% of the time across 5,217 claims we checked. That is only slightly better than a coin flip, so we treat its forward-looking statements as company intentions. They are not outcomes.
Where the venture money is going
The second shift is about trust between machines and the institutions that serve them. Baselayer, a San Francisco startup that helps financial institutions verify businesses and assess fraud risk, raised a $35 million Series A led by M13. Picus Capital, Torch Capital, Afore Capital and Matt Thompson of Socure also took part. The money is meant to extend its identity technology to AI agents.4 On September 22, 2026 it launched an Agentic Identity Suite alongside the raise.5
Its co-founder Jonathan Awad explains the problem this way: "Agents spin up and they spin down. How can you trust this random one-task agent?"4 He also warns that without proof of acting for a legitimate person or business, "agents will just get blocked everywhere."4
The company's own sales story is slow and expensive. Awad says relationships with financial institutions typically take 12 to 18 months to establish, and large merchant partnerships can take up to 24 months.4 He also says: "We've essentially streamlined 10 years' worth of selling into two years."4 That is a founder's claim about his own company, not an audited result.
Investors are also testing how well founders sell. Sean Jacobsohn, a Norwest partner, says: "Before I invest, I'll go on a lot of sales calls I set up with the CEO to see how good they are at selling."6 On AI in finance he is blunt: "You don't want AI doing calculations because it is not good at math."6 He sees more room to disrupt secondary products at big payroll and HR vendors than their core products. He also sees a potential opening against NetSuite and Sage, starting with smaller customers.6
Funding models are also changing. A New York startup called Skalar is trying to finance the gap between what companies spend to win customers and what those customers pay back. It does this without taking equity or demanding repayment on a fixed schedule.7 The dossier does not give its terms or size.
The Baselayer and Norwest coverage comes from Crunchbase News, whose claims held up 51% of the time across 39 checked claims.4 The sample is small and the rate is middling. Quotes are attributed to named speakers, but the surrounding claims deserve caution.
Consolidation and the cautionary note
Deals are running alongside the funding rounds. The framing of this story lists Circle–Tazapay, Grab–Atome, Socure–Fravity and Adobe–Rilo.8 The dossier gives no prices or terms for any of them, so we cannot say what these companies paid or whether they overpaid.
The caution comes from prediction markets. On September 20, 2026, Benoît Dubosson posted on X about a pattern of trades of roughly $5,500 on Kalshi's ether perpetuals. CNBC found that nearly half of that day's dollar volume came from trades between $5,495 and $5,505.9 A cluster that tight is unusual, but the dossier does not say what caused it, and neither do we. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, was backed by Sequoia Capital, and competes with OracleX.1 That context matters because Robinhood's contracts live in the same market. The dossier also names ForecastEx and Susquehanna International Group as suppliers to Robinhood.1
What to watch
- Approval and launch. Whether the KPI contracts clear regulators and go live in October, and for which of the 23 companies.2
- What happens after the fee holiday. Fees are waived only through the end of 2026, and the dossier does not say what comes next.2
- Cash and cash flow. Robinhood's cash has recovered to $5.362 billion in the second quarter of 2026. Operating cash flow was $1.638 billion in fiscal 2025, after a negative fiscal 2024.1
- Market integrity. Whether the Kalshi trading pattern draws further scrutiny.9
- Agent identity. Whether Baselayer's Series A turns into the signed customers the $35 million is meant to buy.4
None of this is advice. The verified numbers describe a company that has become far more profitable. The rest of the picture comes from sources that hold up about half the time, so read their claims as announcements, not results.
