Citadel Securities’ Fed Rate Hike Call Adds to Market Angst

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• Warsh is still kind of a wildcard, adamant about not wanting to provide forward guidance, but might inadvertently signal something.

  60% confidence

• A rate hike would emphatically end the forward guidance era while underscoring the Fed's independence.

  60% confidence

• There is no good reason for the Fed not to raise interest rates.

  60% confidence

• The Fed should rip off the band aid and raise rates by half a point, gaining inflation-fighting credibility while fending off pressure from President Trump to lower borrowing costs.

  60% confidence

• The market is probably underestimating the probability of a Fed move on Wednesday.

  60% confidence

• Warsh has set the stage for a hike; putting off the decision now would raise the probability of a 50 basis point move in September.

  60% confidence