Macroeconomics

Sovereign bond yields across the US, UK, and Japan surged in mid-May 2026 as Jerome Powell's Fed chairmanship expired, stripping global monetary policy of institutional continuity. Services inflation remains above 3% annually and the Iran war added $857 to average American gasoline costs in 2026. AI investment has already surpassed dot-com-era levels as a share of GDP, yet no measurable productivity offset has emerged.

The US-Iran conflict has cut 20 million barrels per day from global oil markets through the Hormuz blockade, marking the largest supply disruption ever measured. WTI crude has surged amid extreme volatility, while analysts warn sustained high energy prices could trigger reflationary pressures that threaten economic growth already facing tariff headwinds.

The US dollar fell to its lowest level since 2022 against major currencies as geopolitical tensions eased and markets anticipated Federal Reserve leadership changes. The British pound dropped 0.4% to €1.13, its weakest since April 2023, while safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc gained ground. Currency analysts forecast further pound weakness ahead of the UK's November 26 budget.