A record high, then five down days
Palantir (PLTR) fell more than 7% on Friday, Oct. 16, closing at $186.03, a drop of $14.47. It was the fifth straight losing session, coming off a 52-week high of $212.94 set earlier that week, in a broader tech selloff.1 The question for an ordinary investor is whether the analyst enthusiasm around the stock is worth trusting, and what the weakness in traditional defense stocks says about where the market will pay a premium.
One caveat shapes the whole piece. The verified financial data in our research system covers Goldman Sachs, which appears in this story as an analyst, a rater of stocks and an adviser. It holds no checked Palantir financials. We therefore cannot verify Palantir's revenue or valuation here, and we do not state any.
What the bulls actually said
Two analysts were reported on the day of the drop. Ryan Canady upgraded Palantir to Buy. He concluded that customer-built AI applications can remain complementary to Palantir's platforms rather than displace its core offering.1 That addresses a specific worry: that clients will build their own tools and stop needing Palantir.
Bernard Zambonin remains constructive. He emphasizes customer expansion and net dollar retention, meaning how much more existing customers spend over time, as central to the bull case. He also acknowledges that the elevated forward valuation makes continued execution essential.1 Even the supportive voice says the price leaves little room for a stumble.
The source is a news summary from NewsEOD. Our measured reliability check found that 57% of 881 claims drawn from that source held up.1 Treat the analyst positions as reported, not as audited fact.
The deals behind the story
October brought a run of partnership announcements. On Oct. 13, Ondas and Palantir announced Regna AI, a standalone private company to help governments, businesses and institutions build and deploy AI models in sovereign environments, with Palantir expected to provide model-training infrastructure and engineering.2 On Oct. 14, Customers Bank announced a collaboration with Palantir on an AI-oriented banking operating model. Its own forward-looking statements highlight implementation risks, reliability concerns and contractual flexibility.2 The same day, Surf Air Mobility signed Flying Zebra as its fifth commercial OperatorOS customer, with software powered by Palantir. Surf Air receives a percentage of revenue from trips managed through the platform.2
None of these records states a dollar value, so we cannot say how much revenue they add. The Customers Bank caveats are worth noting: a bank describing its own project that way is not promising a finished product.
The other side of the market: defense
J.P. Morgan's lead aerospace and defense analyst, Seth M. Seifman, downgraded Leidos in an Oct. 8 report. He argued that its relatively low valuation is not enough to justify an Overweight rating when other aerospace and defense stocks also offer substantial potential returns.3 He expects most companies to deliver solid third-quarter results and to express confidence in underlying demand, but says good earnings may not reverse the sector's stock-market weakness.3 The report cites slowing airline traffic growth, uncertainty over U.S. military spending and lingering supply-chain constraints.3
Political risk is part of this. The Nov. 3 midterm elections could change congressional control and constrain military spending growth, though some uncertainty may fade after that date.2 Seifman also expects Howmet's 2026 earnings estimates to rise and its management to stay confident about aerospace and industrial gas turbines, so the weakness is not uniform.3
Our entity data also lists BigBear.ai Holdings as a competitor of Leidos.4 That is a relationship, not a measure of who is winning.
What Goldman Sachs' own checked numbers show
Goldman's earnings per share, the profit attributable to each share, rose from $22.87 in fiscal 2023 to $40.54 in 2024 and $51.32 in 2025. That is more than double in two years.5 The pattern holds quarter by quarter. Q1 earnings per share were $11.58 in 2024, $14.12 in 2025 and $17.55 in 2026. Q2 figures were $8.62 in 2024, $10.91 in 2025 and $20.98 in 2026.5 All of these figures come from SEC filings and are checked against them.
Cash was less steady. It fell from $241.6 billion at fiscal year-end 2023 to $182.1 billion in 2024 and $164.3 billion in 2025, roughly a third lower over two years.5 Every one of those figures is far larger than most readers can picture, and the dossier has no comparison we could use to anchor them. They describe a bank's balance sheet, which moves with trading and funding activity. A fall does not by itself signal trouble. Capital spending was steady at $2.32 billion, $2.09 billion and $2.06 billion over the same three years.5
This matters because the firm whose profits are rising is also a prominent rater of other companies. When Goldman's Andrea Newkirk resumed coverage of Iovance Biotherapeutics with a buy rating and a $15 price target, the shares gained almost 6% that day.6 The source, Motley Fool, has a measured reliability of 22% across only 18 checked claims, a small and weak sample.6 The point is that one analyst's call can move a stock in a day. It does not show whether the call is right.
Where the market is paying up, and the warning signs
The same market that pays up for AI stories also supports some very expensive names. Melissa Tucker puts D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) at 171 times sales, with projected 2026 revenue near $35 million and a fair-value estimate of $9.50 a share, implying roughly 40% downside from the levels she cited. She points to a delayed technology roadmap and the company's reliance on SkyWare amid IonQ's pending acquisition of that supplier.7 Marc Gerstein sees the company's work in both annealing and gate-model quantum computing as a strategic advantage over single-method peers.7 The stock closed at $17.64 after falling about 10%, following a 20% jump the day before, and is down 25% over the month.7 That is a stock that can move 20% one day and 10% the next.
Nicholas Amicucci says Bloom Energy's ability to provide reliable, dispatchable power to a volatile demand profile differentiates it from competitors.8 That source has a measured reliability of 45% across 520 checked claims.8 NuScale (SMR) has fallen nearly 40% this year. Bank of America's Rinny Singh reiterated a buy rating with a $12 target, implying roughly 24% upside over 12 months.9 That article's source scores 22% on 18 checked claims.9
What to watch
- Nov. 3 midterms: whether defense-spending uncertainty clears or deepens.2
- Palantir's next session: whether the stock steadies after five declines from the $212.94 high.1
- Deal details: whether the Customers Bank, Regna AI and Surf Air partnerships show up as reported revenue. The Surf Air arrangement is explicitly revenue-linked.2
- Defense earnings: Seifman's test of whether good results can lift the sector.3
The verdict is mixed. Analyst support for Palantir is real but conditional, since one bull says execution must justify the valuation. Defense is under pressure for stated, specific reasons. Much of the supporting material comes from sources whose track record we have measured as modest, so read the claims here as reported views, not settled facts.
