The clearest evidence of the AI buildup is what chip companies are spending, not what analysts say about them. Micron Technology's capital expenditure, meaning the money it spends on factories and equipment, was $1.796 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2024. It was $3.206 billion a year later and $5.389 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2026.1 That is roughly three times the spending in two years. All of these figures come from SEC filings and have been checked against them.1
The spending: Micron's full-year capex has roughly doubled
The full-year numbers tell the same story. Micron spent $7.676 billion in fiscal 2023 and $8.386 billion in fiscal 2024.1 In fiscal 2025 it spent $15.857 billion, about 1.9 times the year before.1 A company does not nearly double its factory budget in a year unless it expects demand to justify it.
The cash side is notable too. Micron held $9.642 billion at the end of fiscal 2025.2 By the third quarter of fiscal 2026 it held $24.995 billion, against $10.163 billion in the same quarter a year earlier.2 That is about 2.5 times as much. Two quarters earlier, the second quarter of fiscal 2026, the figure was $13.908 billion.2 Most of the increase therefore arrived in a single quarter. The filings give the amounts but not the cause, so we do not speculate on where the money came from.
Costs have risen far less than spending. Cost of revenue, what it costs Micron to make what it sells, was $19.498 billion in fiscal 2024 and $22.505 billion in fiscal 2025, an increase of about 15%.3 In the second quarter it rose from $5.090 billion in fiscal 2025 to $6.105 billion in fiscal 2026, about 20%.3 The verified dataset we drew on here has no revenue figures, so we cannot calculate profit margins. What it does show is that investment has grown much faster than the cost of running the business today.
The analyst calls, and how far to trust them
The upside numbers circulating this week come from Lynx Equity Strategies. The research firm rates Micron a clear buy with anticipated upside of 33%, and Sandisk a clear buy with 49%.4 We have no performance record for Lynx. We do have a measure for the outlet that carried the story: Motley Fool's article, “Why ASML Holding Stock Bumped 4% Higher Today”, comes from a source whose claims held up 31% of the time across 58 that we checked.4 That is a small sample, but it is a reason to treat the call as one opinion and not as a forecast. The same article reports that ASML rose more than 4% in sympathy.4
The other Micron item is buybacks, where a company uses spare cash to repurchase its own shares. Under CHIPS Act restrictions, Micron becomes technically eligible to restart them in December, but analysts are not necessarily expecting an announcement.5 If you own Micron, either directly or inside a fund, this matters. Money spent on buybacks is not available for factories. The dossier gives no index weightings, so we cannot say how much of any particular fund this represents.
The suppliers: strong results, one mismatch, one cooler outlook
Advanced Energy reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $696 million, up 50% year over year and above the top of its guidance. GAAP gross margin was 41.5%.6 Our topic summary had carried a figure of 64% growth. The company's earnings record shows 50%, so we use 50% and flag the discrepancy. The company guided fourth-quarter revenue to $735 million, give or take $25 million.6
Impinj reported record third-quarter revenue of $112.1 million, with record endpoint chip revenue and unit volumes.7 Its fourth-quarter outlook is $104.0 to $107.0 million, which is below that record.8 The record quarter and the lower outlook sit in the same pair of announcements. Strong results do not mean every company expects steady growth.
Deals, subsidies and the IPO question
Nvidia is working to lock in memory supply. Raj Mirpuri said of its expansion with SK Hynix: “The expansion will include a co-develop opportunity for us on the next-generation SK Hynix AI memory, and this will help us secure a stable supply of HBM memory.”9 The article reports that roughly $950 billion in AI agreements were signed at a July 24 summit in San Francisco.9 The dossier gives no comparison for that figure, so we cannot put it in context for you. Its source, NewsEOD, has a measured reliability of 53% across 6,376 checked claims.9
Consolidation is also under way. Skyworks and Qorvo announced their expected leadership team for the combined company, subject to completion of the pending transaction. Bob Bruggeworth said the announcement reflects the strong partnership that has shaped their integration planning.10 In France, Bull and Kalray announced a collaboration on networking for AI and high-performance computing, including compatibility with Ultra Ethernet.11 GlobalFoundries signed a letter of intent for a $300 million award from the Department of Commerce for silicon photonics, which moves data using light. A letter of intent is not a completed award.12 AMD's Mark Papermaster said: “Silicon photonics and advanced packaging will be key to delivering the bandwidth, energy efficiency, and system-level connectivity required for the next generation of AI cluster infrastructure.”12
Our topic analysis also flags SambaNova as weighing a 2027 US IPO. The excerpt we hold of the Crunchbase piece says the 2026 IPO window is narrowing ahead of a post-Labor Day filing sprint, but it does not confirm SambaNova.13 We treat the IPO plan as unconfirmed.
Insiders and smaller names
Lattice Semiconductor's SVP of Strategy and Marketing, Esam Elashmawi, reported selling 16,773 shares on Aug. 16 and 17, 2026, at a weighted average of $134.56, about $2.3 million in total.14 Insider sales are common and the filing gives no reason, so this alone says little.
Solitron Devices shows the other side of the cycle. Net sales rose 101% to about $5.44 million. Net bookings, which are new orders, fell 48% to $1.45 million, and backlog rose 28% to $23.34 million.15 The company expects sales to stay at this level or higher for the rest of fiscal 2027.15 Our topic analysis also flags slow defense procurement and a strategic review. The company's results release does not say so in the excerpt we hold. The company trades on the OTC Pink market.15
Edge AI and the long-term efficiency bet
On October 22, Harvest Praxis launched the “Hyper AI Brain”, an on-device computing platform built on MediaTek's 3nm chip, which it says is the first use of a mass-produced 3nm chip for this purpose.16
Hannah Earley, cofounder of Vaire Computing, argues that waste heat is a design choice and not an unavoidable cost. Her company is building reversible-computing chips, which recycle energy normally lost as heat. She told MIT Technology Review that she wants to “tackle every part of how computers are built, and rethink it in these terms,” and called the resonator “really a glorified pendulum.”17 Treat this as research, not a revenue story. The source's measured reliability is 6% of 16 checked claims, a very small sample.17
What to watch
- Micron's next filing: whether capex keeps climbing from $5.389 billion a quarter, and what happens to cash after the jump to $24.995 billion.1,2
- Whether Micron announces buybacks once eligible.5
- Whether Impinj meets its lower fourth-quarter range and whether Advanced Energy reaches $735 million.6,8
- Whether GlobalFoundries' letter of intent becomes a signed award.12
