The AI infrastructure trade is easy to describe in headlines and hard to check. The most solid evidence we hold is not an analyst rating. It is a set of figures from SEC filings showing how much one memory chipmaker, Micron Technology, is now spending and how much cash it has on hand. Around that core sit a lot of opinions, some of them well supported and some not. This piece separates the two.1
The verified core: Micron's spending has gone vertical
Micron's capital expenditure, the money it spends on factories and equipment, was $7.676 billion in fiscal 2023 and $8.386 billion in fiscal 2024. In fiscal 2025 it rose to $15.857 billion, roughly 89% more than the year before.2 The quarterly figures show the same pattern. First-quarter capex was $1.796 billion in the 2024 period, $3.206 billion in the 2025 period and $5.389 billion in the 2026 period.2 That is about three times the 2024 level in two years. These are canonical figures taken from SEC filings.
For scale, Baker Hughes forecast total 2026 revenue of $27.35 billion on its latest earnings call.7 Micron's single-year capex in fiscal 2025 was a little over half of that, and it comes from one company's building programme.
The balance sheet is paying for it
Micron's cash was $9.642 billion at the end of fiscal 2025.3 It stood at $13.908 billion in the Q2 2026 period and $24.995 billion in the Q3 2026 period, against $10.163 billion in the Q3 2025 period.3 The Q3 2026 cash balance is close to Baker Hughes' entire forecast annual revenue. It means the company is funding its expansion from a growing cash pile, at least on these filings.
Costs are rising more slowly. Cost of revenue, what it costs Micron to make what it sells, was $16.956 billion in fiscal 2023, $19.498 billion in fiscal 2024 and $22.505 billion in fiscal 2025.4 In the Q2 2026 period it was $6.105 billion against $5.090 billion a year earlier, about 20% higher.4 We hold no verified revenue figures in this dossier, so we cannot compute a profit margin. Cash building faster than costs is consistent with strong demand, but it is not proof of margins. Treat it as a pointer, not a conclusion.
Our knowledge graph records that Micron supplies Amazon Web Services and Meta Platforms and is located in Taiwan.6 That makes it a supplier to the biggest data-centre spenders and exposed to one geography. Separately, SanDisk was spun off from Western Digital, which is how a second memory name appears in the same trade.6 Our dossier does not contain index weightings, so we cannot say how much of this you own through a broad fund.
What the analysts are doing around it
On 4 September 2026, Lynx Equity Strategies analyst K.C. Rajkumar published a bullish analysis rating both Micron and Sandisk as clear buys. The same day ASML rose more than 4% in what our records describe as a sympathy rally in related chip stocks.5 One analyst note moving a different company's shares by 4% shows how crowded and sentiment-driven the theme is. It is a reason to be careful about reading the rally as new information about ASML.
Our narrative summary of mid-2026 sell-side activity also lists Digital Realty raising its core funds-from-operations guidance, the profit measure real-estate companies use. It also lists Evercore ISI setting a Street-high $350 target on Bloom Energy.1 We have no figures behind either beyond that, so we cannot test them.
On Bloom, Nicholas Amicucci wrote that its ability to provide reliable, dispatchable power to a volatile demand profile differentiates it from competitors. He also noted its inclusion in the Russell 1000 index and an expansion of its AI infrastructure partners.8 Be careful with that source. In our measurements, only 46% of 520 checked claims from it held up, our weakest rate among the mainstream outlets here.8
Baker Hughes gives firmer evidence on the power side. Its chief executive Lorenzo Simonelli reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.23 billion, above the top of guidance. He also reported a record 18.3% adjusted EBITDA margin and orders in its IET unit doubling year over year to a record $7.1 billion.7 The company is targeting Horizon 2 IET orders above $45 billion.7 This is a company's own earnings call, so it is management's account, though a checkable one. The excerpt we hold does not tie those orders to data centres, so we do not make that link.
NuScale shows how thin some of this support is. Bank of America's Rinny Singh reiterated a buy rating in early August with a $12 target, roughly 24% above the price at the time. The shares have fallen nearly 40% since the start of 2026.9 The source is a Motley Fool article, and just 22% of 18 checked claims from it held up. That sample is small, but we would not lean on it.9
The stretched end: quantum
D-Wave (QBTS) is the clearest example of a valuation running ahead of the numbers. Analyst Melissa Tucker put it at 171 times sales, with projected 2026 revenue near $35 million. She set a fair-value estimate of $9.50 a share, implying roughly 40% downside, and cited a delayed technology roadmap and D-Wave's reliance on SkyWare while IonQ's acquisition of that supplier is pending.11 The stock closed at $17.64 after falling about 10%, following a 20% surge the day before on an expanded AT&T partnership and a bullish analyst initiation. It was still down 25% over the month.11 A stock that swings 20% up and 10% down in two days is being traded on stories rather than earnings. Our graph lists IonQ and Rigetti as D-Wave's competitors.6
The $9.50 target sits well below the $17.64 close. We report the analyst's own roughly 40% figure, which was measured against the price at the time of the note.
The weak end: consumer names
On Nike, Lorraine Hutchinson lowered Bank of America's price target because the sales recovery is taking longer than expected.12 Wendy's fell nearly 6% on 16 September after Seaport Global's Eric Gonzalez initiated coverage with a neutral rating, adding to a decline since a take-private plan collapsed.13 The dossier lists GAP and Levi's as weak too, but offers no figures for them, so we say no more.1
Biotech: a different story
JPMorgan's Jessica Fye argues that several trends are developing at once in large-cap biotech: improving profitability, broader commercial diversification, a steady flow of clinical catalysts and continued business-development opportunities.14 Goldman Sachs analyst Andrea Newkirk resumed coverage of Iovance on 24 September with a buy rating and a $15 target.15 Our narrative links this to merger activity such as Incyte-Vega, but only loosely to the AI theme.1 It is a separate trade, not part of the AI buildout.
A seam in the market
One of our sources reports that rotation out of semiconductor and other technology stocks was offsetting gains elsewhere in real-estate stocks in June.10 That sits awkwardly beside the September enthusiasm for memory and chip names, and it suggests the AI trade has not been a one-way street. The two accounts cover different periods, and we cannot say which better describes the current mood.
What to watch
- Micron's next filings: whether capex keeps climbing from $5.389 billion a quarter, and whether cash stays near $25 billion as it does.2,3
- Cost of revenue against revenue: our dossier has no revenue figures, so check whether cost growth stays around 20% and whether sales keep up.4
- D-Wave's Q2 2026 results, scheduled for 6 August before the market opened: whether revenue approaches the $35 million projection.11
- Baker Hughes' IET orders, against the target above $45 billion.7
- Source quality: sources in this dossier held up between 22% and 57% of the time. The verified filings are the part we would anchor on.
This is analysis of the available evidence, not investment advice.
