The money behind the AI buildout is now visible in filings
Analyst enthusiasm for AI infrastructure is easy to find. The harder question for an ordinary investor is whether the companies are putting real money behind it. For Micron Technology, the answer is in SEC filings. Annual capital expenditure was $7.676 billion in fiscal 20231, $8.386 billion in fiscal 20241 and $15.857 billion in fiscal 20251. That is about double the 2023 level, and the biggest single-year jump in the series. To picture the scale: the fiscal 2025 figure alone is roughly 45% of the more than $35 billion Capital One paid to acquire Discover9. Micron spent that on factories and equipment in one year.
The quarterly figures point the same way. Capex was $1.796 billion in Q1 20241, $3.206 billion in Q1 20251 and $5.389 billion in Q1 20261. The spending is still accelerating, not levelling off. Our coverage also records Micron as a supplier to Amazon Web Services and Meta Platforms2, so its customers are the same hyperscalers behind the wider buildout.
The balance sheet is absorbing it
Spending of this size would normally strain a chipmaker. Micron's filings show cash of $8.577 billion at fiscal 20232, $7.041 billion at fiscal 20242 and $9.642 billion at fiscal 20252. The latest quarters are more striking. Cash was $10.163 billion in Q3 20252 and $24.995 billion in Q3 20262, about two and a half times as much a year on. Q2 2026 cash of $13.908 billion2 compares with $7.552 billion in Q2 20252.
Costs are rising too, but more slowly than the cash. Cost of revenue, what it costs Micron to make what it sells, was $16.956 billion in fiscal 20233, $19.498 billion in fiscal 20243 and $22.505 billion in fiscal 20253. In Q2 2026 it was $6.105 billion3, against $5.090 billion in Q2 20253, an increase of roughly one fifth. Capex more than doubled over the longer span while production costs rose about a third. Cash building up that quickly suggests revenue is growing faster than costs. The dossier holds no revenue figures, so we can only infer that, not confirm it.
This is a pattern in the filings, not a forecast. Spending this heavy only pays off if demand stays strong. The filings show Micron betting that it will.
Power and the people who will sell it
The buildout needs electricity as well as memory chips. One analyst, Nicholas Amicucci, argues that Bloom Energy's ability to supply reliable, dispatchable power to a volatile demand profile sets it apart from competitors5. Dispatchable means power that can be switched on when needed, which solar and wind cannot guarantee. The same article describes Bloom's inclusion in the Russell 1000 index and an expanded set of AI infrastructure partners5. It comes from a source where only 46% of 520 checked claims held up5, so treat the enthusiasm with caution.
NuScale Power, which builds small nuclear reactors, is a more uncertain case. Its shares have fallen nearly 40% since the start of 2026, yet Bank of America's Rinny Singh reiterated a buy in early August with a $12 price target, implying roughly 24% upside6. That article's source has a weak record: only 22% of 18 checked claims held up6. The sample is small, but the number is low enough to warrant care.
Where analysts say the price has run too far
Our coverage also shows analysts pushing back on valuations. On D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), analyst Melissa Tucker flags a stretched 171 times price-to-sales multiple against peers. She projects 2026 revenue near $35 million and puts fair value at $9.50 a share, implying roughly 40% downside4. She cites a delayed technology roadmap and D-Wave's reliance on SkyWare, whose supplier IonQ is in the process of acquiring4. Our entity graph lists IonQ as a competitor of D-Wave4.
The same source records the stock closing at $17.64 after a $1.88 drop, down about 25% over the month4. That follows a 20% surge the day before, driven by an expanded AT&T partnership and what the article calls a bullish analyst initiation4. So one set of analysts is bullish on D-Wave and another sees the stock heading much lower. Note also that $9.50 sits more than 40% below the $17.64 close. The dossier does not say which price Tucker's 40% was measured from, so the two figures should not be read as exactly consistent.
Our coverage also notes a drawdown of more than 40% from its highs in SpaceX7. Our narrative analysis groups it with the stretched-valuation names, though the dossier gives no further detail on the cause.
The K-shaped consumer: strong brands, slow recoveries
Away from AI, the consumer picture is mixed. Bank of America's Lorraine Hutchinson lowered her Nike price target because the sales recovery is taking longer than expected8. The article notes shoppers are harder to win back, with Adidas, On, Hoka and New Balance among the alternatives8. At the other end, UBS's Kendall Toscano reiterated a Buy and a $27 price target on Levi Strauss. She sees a brand moving toward "higher-quality, consistent growth"3a. Levi is stretching from value lines to $200–$350 premium jeans3a.
Wendy's fell nearly 6% on September 16 when Seaport Global Securities initiated coverage with a neutral rating. The shares had already been drifting lower since a take-private plan collapsed10.
Credit is the quieter worry. Capital One has racked up $1.8 billion in integration costs since the Discover deal and posted two straight profit misses9. Analyst Stephen Biggar suggested the market may have disliked last quarter's large reserve build because it signalled that "they expect some weakness or deterioration in credit quality"9. In plain terms, reserves are money set aside for loans that may go bad. A big increase can mean the bank sees trouble ahead.
Housing is more resilient. KB Home guided Q3 2026 housing revenue to $1.2–$1.35 billion with a 16%–16.6% gross margin11. Analyst Rafe Jadrosich noted that build-to-order deliveries were 60% of the total in Q2 and that guidance rests on today's prices and costs11.
Event risk on the calendar
Several dated events add risk. The FDA has set November 14, 2026 as the PDUFA target date, its deadline for deciding whether to approve, on Summit Therapeutics' ivonescimab12. Goldman Sachs resumed coverage of Iovance Biotherapeutics with a buy and a $15 price target on September 24, 202613. And a company in our coverage, which the dossier does not name, has $500 million of 2.9% notes maturing in March 2027 that are expected to be refinanced at higher rates14. Cheap old debt becoming dearer is a plain cost-of-capital squeeze.
What to watch
- Whether Micron's capex keeps rising faster than its cost of revenue. That is where the buildout either earns its return or does not.
- Whether cash keeps building after the $24.995 billion reading2, or starts funding even larger factories.
- D-Wave's reported revenue against the roughly $35 million projection4, which is the number the 171x multiple rests on.
- Capital One's next reserve movement and whether integration costs fade9.
- The November 14 PDUFA decision12 and the March 2027 refinancing14.
A note on source quality: our measured reliability for the news-feed sources cited here runs from 46% to 57% of checked claims holding up4, and 22% for the Motley Fool article6. The Micron figures come from SEC filings, which is why they anchor this piece.
